Fonte: Journal of Tourism Analysis: Revista de Análisis Turístico (JTA); Vol. 25 Núm. 2 (2018): REVISTA DE ANÁLISIS TURÍSTICO
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Purpose
Several studies have been made that analyze factors that affect the demand of tourism from several optics. This paper aims to study the factors that determine the demand for tourism in Mexico, through an econometric analysis, by using the Johansen cointegration model (1991) to determine the long-term elasticity between the demand of tourists and the wealth related to its main markets (the USA and Canada) and the relative prices in Mexico and its two main competitors (the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used econometric analysis using Johansen’s cointegration model (1991), using as a dependent variable the demand of tourists from the main countries of origin (the USA and Canada), taking as data the number of tourists by air in the period 1980-2015, according to information from the SIIMT. The independent variables are the relative wealth of the country of origin of the tourists (wealth of the tourist in Mexico concerning the wealth in their country of origin) and the relative prices of the destination country with respect to the country of competition. The source for per capita income and the consumer price index is the World Bank.
Findings
The results obtained in this document show that in the long-term the price is a factor of impact in the purchase decision of both markets analyzed. Presenting an elastic demand to the price, which implies that the market is sensitive to the variations of the price of tourist services, opting for the destination that offers better prices, with a higher sensitivity to the price when compared with Costa Rica. Coinciding with previous studies carried out in other tourist destinations, such as in the work of Patsouratis et al. (2005).
Originality/value
The main contribution of this work is to determine the long-term relationship, through a cointegration analysis of Johansen (1991). A methodology that has not been used to perform a competitive analysis between countries. Additionally, the present work uses variables different from those considered in previous works; the dependent variable is the demand of tourists from the main countries of origin (the USA and Canada) and as dependent variables the relative wealth of the country of origin of the tourists (Wealth of the tourist in Mexico with respect to wealth in their country of origin) and the relative prices of the destination country with respect to the country of competition.
