Resumo: Air transport is a fundamental element for the development of global tourism. Forecasts in both sectors indicate a continued, solid and indisputable growth. This study aims to gain an understanding of air transport sustainability from an energy supply perspective and to compare the criticality for tourism and air transport of a potential oil scarcity crisis with the climate change threat caused by emissions of greenhouse gases. The evolution of energy, air transport and tourism and the future projections of these industries are analyzed in order to obtain an integrated understanding of energy supply and environmental sustainability in all three sectors. A “mixed” methodology has been used where an analysis of statistical data and forecasts for the energy, air transport and tourism sectors is cross-compared with the results of a qualitative methodology exercise based on participant observation and in-depth interviews with experts. Both the data analysis and the information gathered from the experts confirm the higher degree of urgency and the imminent impact of the climate change scenario in the air transport and tourism sectors compared to a potential oil or energy scarcity. Since the aircraft propulsion system energy paradigm is not going to change in the medium-term and since air transport and tourism growth, with a guaranteed oil supply, are not imminently endangered, both sectors will progressively increase their relevance as contributors to climate change. However, improvements in other sectors with a greater relevance in fuel consumption and emission generation will relativize said increase when analyzed in global terms. Emissions offset schemes are identified as a mechanism necessary to achieve the goal of stabilizing or reducing air transport emissions. However, their implementation needs to be carefully studied as there are inherent risks if they are devised as a mere product for the financial market.
